This week the world’s best (well except for Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy) are gathered at the TPC Sawgrass for the so called “fifth major”, the Players Championship.  Like many others, I think the “fifth major” label is stretching it a bit, but if you just went by the coverage on the Golf Channel, you’d think the US Open was being held this week.

That said, the Players Championship is always a fun tournament to watch and the notoriously difficult island green on the par-3 17th is one of the most exciting holes in golf.  So who do I think will emerge victorious on Sunday?

Luke Donald – The world #3 is an easy pick this week.  He extremely accurate off the tee and a great putter.  According to the new Strokes Gained – Putting statistic, he was actually the best putter on tour in 2009 and 2010.

Because he’s not a bomber, there are certain courses where it’s difficult for him to contend, but last year Tim Clark showed us all that you don’t have to be a huge hitter to win the Players.

Adam Scott – Scott had an incredible week at the Masters and followed that up with a solid outing at the Valero Texas Open.  He’s taken the last couple of weeks off, so he should arrive at the first tee on Thursday rested and ready to go.

Scott has always been a solid ball-striker and has historically been held back by his putting.  He definitely seems to have found something with the long putter though.  So if he’s able to maintain that, we’ll likely see him in contention on Sunday.

Tommy Gainey – Gainey is definitely a bit of a dark horse pick.  He had two consecutive 3rd place finishes at the Heritage and Zurich but then followed that with a MC at Quail Hollow.  It seems like Gainey is either in the mix or misses the cut.  That’s just a reflection of his go-for-broke playing style.

It’s a lot of fun watching Gainey and his home-made swing out there amongst all the picture-perfect swings on Tour.  I’d love to see him walk up to the 17th tee with a chance to win on Sunday.

Ben Crane – Ben Crane was one of my dark horse picks at the Masters.  That didn’t turn out so hot.  But I think he actually has a great chance at the TPC Sawgrass.  In his last 3 years here, his worst finish is 6th.  For whatever reason, he just plays really well on this course.

Martin Kaymer – Wow, Derek, you’re taking such a risk picking the world #2 and #3 players this week.  I know, by world ranking, Kaymer should be a favorite to win this week.  But after his missed cut at the Masters, he’s not at the top of many people’s list this week.

At the end of the day he is the #2 player in the world and got there for a reason.  He’s got something to prove after Augusta and I think this could be the week he does it.

With Martin Kaymer missing the cut 78-72, the #1 world ranking is officially up for grabs this weekend at the Masters.  Lee Westwood (#2), Phil Mickelson (#3), Luke Donald (#4), and Tiger (#7) could all take over the number 1 spot depending on how the other contenders finish.  Graeme McDowell (#5)  missed the cut and because of the math, Paul Casey (#6) can’t move to #1 even if he wins.

You’d have to be a statistician to figure out all of the possible scenarios, but thankfully the Golf Channel’s Randal Mell has laid out the possibilities for the rest of us:

No. 2 Westwood and No. 3 Mickelson can become No. 1 with a Masters’ victory regardless what anyone else does.

No. 4 Donald becomes No. 1 if he wins and Westwood finishes worse than solo second.

No. 7 Woods becomes No. 1 if he wins and Mickelson finishes worse than solo second and Westwood finishes outside the top three.

No. 5 Graeme McDowell missed the cut. No. 6 Paul Casey by virtue of divisors and OWGR rolling two-year math has no shot to become No. 1 this week.

My head hurts now.

[Image Flickr/Keith Allison]

Phil Mickelson’s win on Sunday at the Shell Houston Open moved him into 3rd place in the world golf rankings (from 6th) while Tiger, who didn’t play, slid from 5th to 7th.  This is the first time that Mickelson has led Tiger in the world rankings in 14 years (since the 1997 Masters).

Many golf fans probably asked themselves today if Hell had finally frozen over.  Ok, that’s a bit dramatic, but after Mickelson was unable to move ahead of Woods on 15 separate occasions last year, it seemed like it would never happened.  However on Sunday, Mickelson finally pulled out a big win when he needed it and vaulted past Woods.

Mickelson is now just over a point behind world #1 Martin Kaymer.  I’m not sure exactly how the math works out, but if Phil wins at Augusta this week, he would have to be very, very close to the #1 spot.  Last week, I would have told you that it meant he had no chance of winning.  This week, well, I’m not so sure anymore.

It’s official.  People that bet on golf are idiots.  Tiger Woods is currently 10-1 to win the Masters this week.  He was the odds on favorite to win this week until Phil Mickelson won in Houston over the weekend.  He dropped from 8-1 to 10-1 while Phil did the reverse.

Seriously, what the hell are people thinking?  I’m not saying that Tiger should be 100-1, but 10-1?   That’s nuts.  Tiger hasn’t done anything recently that would warrant those odds.  If he had finished well at the Bob Hope, I could see it.  But a T24 performance doesn’t bode well for his chances at Augusta.

Here’s the list of Tiger’s 2011 stats:

There isn’t anything on that list that screams “Favorite to win the Masters”.  He’s averaging 289 off the tee and only finding the fairway 47% of the time.  He’s going to have to improve one of those stats significantly this week to contend.

How are some of the other big names faring in the betting?  As previously mentioned, Phil’s win in Houston has made him the favorite at 8-1.  World #1 Martin Kaymer is 18-1.  How anybody could follow golf for the past year and a half and think that Tiger is basically twice as likely to win the Masters as Martin Kaymer is beyond me.  Dustin Johnson is 12-1 and Nick Watney (probably the hottest golfer on the planet in 2011) is 15-1.

You can never count Tiger out of a golf tournament.  But he hasn’t won since 2009 and so far this year he’s clearly not playing like somebody who’s going to win the Masters.  Stranger things have happened, but it seems like your money would be better placed elsewhere.

Masters betting odds from Golf.com:

Here are the Tropicana’s Masters odds for the top favorites:

Phil Mickelson: 8 to 1

Tiger Woods: 10 to 1

Dustin Johnson: 12 to 1

Nick Watney: 15 to 1

Lee Westwood: 15 to 1

Martin Kaymer: 18 to 1

Matt Kuchar: 18 to 1

Rory McIlroy: 20 to 1

Graeme McDowell: 25 to 1

Luke Donald: 25 to 1

Esposito said Las Vegas casinos have been seeing enough action to drop the odds on these players:

Bubba Watson: 25 to 1

Ricky Barnes: 35 to 1

Rickie Fowler: 35 to 1

Outside of Woods (2006 champion) and Mickelson (2010 champion), recent Masters winners aren’t considered strong contenders:

2009 champion Angel Cabrera: 100 to 1

2008 champion Trevor Immelman: 100 to 1

2007 champion Zach Johnson: 80 to 1

The field (all the players not given individual odds) is 10 to 1.

[Image Flickr/Keith Allison]

Last year, Bubba Watson was all that stood between Martin Kaymer and his first major.  Kaymer defeated Watson in a 3-hole playoff to claim the PGA Championship.  Yesterday, Watson was all that was standing between Kaymer and the #1 world ranking.

It took just a little bit longer (a full 18 holes), but after Kaymer won the 16th hole to go dormie, he seemed destined to displace Lee Westwood on top of the world golf rankings, a spot that Westwood has held since Oct 31st.

I’ve stated a number of times that I think Martin Kaymer is currently the best player in the world.  Nobody else has matched his performance over the past year and now the rankings have finally caught up to reality.

Kaymer will now face Luke Donald in the final match of the WGC-Accenture.  The number 1 spot is secure, but I’m sure that Kaymer would love to put an exclamation point on it with a win.  That’s going to be a tough task, as Donald has birdied 13 of his last 27 holes.  But he can’t stay that hot forever can he?

Defending champion Ian Poulter wasn’t feeling to good about being knocked out in the first round of the WGC-Accenture Match Play yesterday.  Given that he wasn’t the only upset, he proposed a match with Tiger this weekend, and suggested that Paul Azinger could provide commentary.  Steve Stricker might want in on this thing too.

Honestly a Poulter/Woods grudgematch would probably draw ratings as high as any other match left to play this weekend.

And on a side note, how good did Martin Kaymer look yesterday?  If he keeps playing like that, it’s only a matter of time before the world #2 finds himself in the #1 spot.

The title kind of says it all.  How unusual is it that any given week’s PGA Tour event the 3rd most interesting golf tournament taking place?  Yes, “Johnny Vegas” is doing his thing at the Bob Hope Classic this week and could grab his first PGA Tour victory in just his fifth start.  But despite that, I honestly think both the European Tour and Champions Tour events are more exciting.

On the Champions Tour, we have Tom Watson shooting a 65 on Saturday to make it into the final pairing for Sunday.  I generally don’t follow the Champions Tour, but if Watson is in contention, I’m probably going to tune in.

And in Abu Dhabi, we’ve got the best player in the world showing his stuff. No, not world #1, Lee Westwood.  I’m talking about the best golfer in the world right now, Martin Kaymer.  When you look at his swing, you wonder why he doesn’t win every single event he enters.  He’s only made 1 bogey this week and is 3 clear of the field.  And if he wins, I believe that he will move past Woods into the #2 world ranking spot on Monday.  If that happens, the #1 ranking seems like just a matter of time.

So what do you guys think?  Am I way out in left field on this one?

[Image Flickr/Keith Allison]

PGA Tour Commissioner Tim Finchem w/ his Golden Goose, Tiger Woods

We all know that the Euros got the best of our last encounter at the Ryder Cup. I thought we were going to have to wait 2 years to see a rematch, but the PGA and European Tours are giving us a bit of a rematch less than 2 months later. Over the last few weeks there have been a series of escalating actions/reactions that have the potential to create dramatic lasting impacts on the landscape of professional golf.

If you haven’t been following everything too closely, here’s a quick rundown of what’s been going on:

• Non-American players win 3 out of 4 majors this year (Graeme McDowell – N. Ireland, Louis Oosthuizen – S. Africa, Martin Kaymer – Germany)
• Paul Casey and Justin Rose are left off of the Euro Ryder Cup team by Colin Montgomery (at least in part due to the fact that they play primarily in the US)
• Europe barely wins the Ryder Cup
• Lee Westwood takes over the #1 ranking from Tiger
• Anthony Kim is denied a medical exemption to keep his European Tour Card:  He only played 7 events but was 48th on the money list
• Rory McIlroy & Martin Kaymer decide not to be PGA Tour members for 2011 (Westwood said “no” as well but that was already expected).  They don’t like the FedEx cup format (who can blame them?)
• PGA Tour waves a big stick, threatening to limit PGA Tour events for McIlroy for the next 5 years if he drops membership
• Ian Poulter suggests he may have to rethink his tour membership choice

So where does that leave us?  We have the top professional golf tour in the world getting involved in a standoff with some of the best golfers in the world.  Ultimately I suspect that cooler heads will prevail and the desire to make money will allow all of the involved parties to reach agreements that keep everybody happy.

McIlroy may or may not follow through with dropping his tour membership.  But even if he does, the Tour will likely come up with a way to allow him to play all of the big events (like they do with Westwood).  Poulter will keep his Tour card.  The money in the US is too good and who wants to move from Florida to England?

What will be the impact on the PGA Tour?  Not much.  The Tour needs players more than they need the tour, but a few European players walking away isn’t going to have a dramatic impact on sponsors/attendance.  And if the money keeps flowing, not much will change.  If we get really lucky, this might cause some proactive thinkers at the tour offices to think about how the FedEx Cup could be revamped to be more understandable for the fans and less taxing on the players.  I’m not holding my breath though.

At the end of the day, the PGA Tour is still where the best golf in the world is being played and the biggest checks are being cashed.  That’s not going to change anytime soon.  However, we’re seeing the emergence of the European and Asian tours as legitimate alternatives rather than stepping stones.  We now have more opportunities to see great golf being played all over the world.  And to me, that’s never a bad thing.

(image: Flickr/Keith Allison)

Crouching Tiger Hidden… Westwood?

All of the big boys are out to play this week in Shanghai at the HSBC Champions.  15 of the top 20 players in the world are competing including Tiger, Phil, Kaymer and Westwood.  Tiger, Phil and Kaymer all have an opportunity to grab the #1 ranking with a win.

It’s not often that we see real, meaningful golf during “Silly Season” and the fact that all of the big names showed up just goes to illustrate that the future of golf is in Asia.  According to the R&A’s Peter Dawson:

There is not 20 percent growth in the game of golf to be had in the U.S. or U.K., in my humble opinion. Out here there is.

As Weiunderpar pointed out, Tim Finchem has decided that a victory in Shanghai will count as a PGA Tour victory for any tour member.   This will help encourage players to make the trip over to Asia and could possibly prevent Tiger from having a winless 2010 season.  The LPGA has already gone down this road and something like half of their events now take place outside of the US.

I for one can’t blame the PGA Tour for taking advantage of this opportunity.  We’re going to see more big events taking place in Asia and we’re going to see more players willing to make the trek across the Pacific in the future.

Lee Westwood is now officially the #1 golfer in the world, which I think also technically makes him the best player in the world to have never won a major.

Nobody knows how long his reign will last.  Woods, Mickelson, and Kaymer are all playing at the HSBC Champions this week in Shanghai and any of them could jump into the #1 spot with a win.

Jim Gorant, Senior Editor at Sports Illustrated, had this interesting take (which mirrors my own opinion pretty closely):

As for Westwood, I don’t think he’s worthy. Just doesn’t feel like a guy who has done enough [2 wins on the PGA tour in 12 years and no majors]. Phil is the disappointment here. From the Masters to the end of the season, all he had to do was win to be top dog, but he couldn’t get it done. It should have been him.

Damon Hack, Senior Writer at Sports Illustrated agreed:

To me, Vijay is the only guy who really took the ranking away from Tiger. He beat him straight up in Boston in ’04. I’m surprised Phil didn’t capitalize on his Masters win and salt away the ranking for the rest of the year.

Another interesting tidbit:  Westwood is the 4th player to ever grab the #1 ranking without a major to his name.  The others are Woosnam, Couples, and Duval.  They all went on to win Majors.  It took Woosnam a week and Duval about 2 years.  How long will it take Westwood or will he remain the only #1 ranked player in the world to never win a major?

(Image: Flickr/Eugene Goh)