As you might have noticed from my posts these past few weeks, I really like seeing the competition for tour cards in the fall. In some ways I think that it’s more compelling to see guys struggling to stay in the top 125 or 150, than compete for a top 10 world rankings spot.

This article on golfweek.com got me thinking.  Failure on the PGA Tour is more lucrative than expected.  In fact, in 2009 the top 125 cut-off was $681,631.  Most people would kill to make that kind of money in a single year.  But in 2010, Troy Merritt, who landed at 125 on the money list, made $786,977, an increase of $105k over last year.

What explains the jump in earnings at the lower end of the PGA tour money list?  The total prize money increased slightly (by about $1.4m) but that’s not enough to skew these numbers.  The big differences, in fact, were Tiger, Phil, and Steve Stricker.

Tiger was the primary factor in this increase.  In 2009, he won $10.5m.  In 2010, he won $1.3m.In 2009, Phil won $5.3m.  In 2010, his winnings fell to $3.8m.  And in 2009, Stricker won $6.3m, falling to $4.2 in 2010.  That’s a total of $12.9m in winnings ($9.2 from Tiger alone) that these 3 left on the table for everybody else.

Theoretically this drop off in winnings by 2009′s top 3 players should have created a void for others to step up and dramatically increase their winnings.  But for the most part, nobody did.  Tiger, Phil, and Stricker all won more in 2009 than the 2010 money leader, Matt Kuchar.

In fact, it’s a really interesting exercise to assume that the money left on the table was distributed evenly among the remaining players in the top 125.  If you take that $12.9m and divide it by 122, you end up with $105k.  Exactly the increase in winnings for the 125 spot on the money list.

Now obviously Troy Merritt had a great finish to the 2010 season, winning the Kodak Challenge, which had nothing to do with Tiger.  But when he’s putting together his Christmas gift list this year, he shouldn’t forget about Tiger.  After all, nothing says “Thanks for the $100k” like a pajamagram.

Johnson Wagner made a great effort but fell just short of securing his tour card

The biggest story of the week was probably Troy Merritt finishing right on the bubble at 125 and cashing a $1 million check for winning the Kodak Challenge in a playoff against Aaron Baddeley and Rickie Fowler. I imagine that it had to be one of the best Sunday’s Merritt has had in his life.

But Merritt wasn’t the only player fighting for his card. Roland Thatcher might have “vomited” away the tournament (his words), but he did enough to make a huge jump from 179 to 122. It was close though. He had to make a 5 foot putt to secure his card after Spencer Levin 3-jacked it from 18 feet. However not only did Thatcher make the putt, he cashed a $500k check.  So not a bad weekend for him either.

And of course Robert Garrigus’s win erased his demons from the loss to Lee Westwood earlier this year and moved him from 122 to 51 on the money list.  125 may be the magic number, but top 70 is important too because it opens up entry to several additional events.

Michael Connell moved from 129 to 115 with a strong finish, as did Mark Wilson who jumped from 140 to 123. Johnson Wagner made a great effort, but fell just short, moving from 153 to 126.

A number of players weren’t able to keep pace with the field. Briny Baird dropped a spot to 126, even though he made $43k this week. Woody Austin and Michael Allen both missed the cut and dropped from 123 and 124 to 129 and 130 respectively.

But the biggest heartbreak probably came from Troy Matteson. He had been sitting at 125, and when he made the cut, I thought he was probably safe. But his lackluster weekend play wasn’t enough to keep pace with Thatcher, Connell, and Wilson, which pushed him 3-spots down the list to 128.

One thing to keep in mind through all of this is that Wagner and Matteson both cleared well in excess of $700k, so it’s not like they’re going to be scrambling to put food on the table next year. Additionally, they’ll be exempt into the final stage of Q-school, guaranteeing them status on either the PGA Tour or Nationwide Tour in 2011.

Also, players that finish from 126-150, have conditional status on Tour the following year. No, they’re not “fully exempt” which means they can’t make their own schedule, but if they’re flexible and willing to travel at the last minute, they should be able to play around 20 events on Tour.

Will MacKenzie will have to play well at the 2nd stage of Q-School to avoid the mini-tours in 2011

Players that dropped outside of the top-150 (like Will MacKenzie did with a missed cut) are really the guys that get the short end of the stick. Yes, MacKenzie did earn $557k, but all he gets is a ticket to the 2nd stage of q-school (being played this week). If he fails to advance, he could find himself playing the mini-tours and looking for sponsors exemptions into both PGA Tour and Nationwide Tour events. That’s a pretty big fall from grace.  But that’s the life of a professional golfer.  There are a limited number of spots at the top and there’s always a new group of players looking to take your job.

Overall this has been a heck of a fall series.  We’ve seen lots of eagles and aces.  Players played their hearts out.  Some were able to come through and others fell a bit short.  And in about 8 weeks, we’ll get to start this whole thing all over again.  I can’t wait.

Troy Merritt had one hell of a Sunday.  He finished the year right on the button at #125 on the money list and then won the Kodak Challenge along with $1 million dollars in a 3-way playoff against Aaron Baddeley and Rickie Fowler.  Not a bad Sunday at all.

Here’s the video of Merritt’s clutch approach shot to 15″.  Talk about coming through when it matters. I wonder if now he’s going to go to Disney World? Oh wait… he’s already there.

With a 1-under par 71 at the Children’s Miracle Network Classic today, Troy Merritt made the cut and likely guaranteed himself a 2011 PGA Tour card.  I’m not a statistician, but Merritt is currently sitting at 121 on the money list so although it may be technically possible for him to drop below 125, there’s little to no chance of that actually happening… and little just left the building.

Merritt obviously wants to finish the 2010 season strong, and what better way to do that than with a $1 million cash prize?  No, he’s not exactly in contention for the win this week.  But he is currently tied for the lead in the Kodak Challenge.  If you’re not familiar with it, the Kodak Challenge is a season long competition where 30 holes are selected at the beginning of the year.  Competitors must play at least 18 of the 30 holes during the season to qualify.  At the end of the year, the golfer with the best score relative to par wins the Kodak Challenge and a cool $1 million.

Earlier today, Rickie Fowler made a great birdie on the 17th hole to pull into a 3-way tie in the Kodak Challenge with Troy Merritt and Aaron Baddeley.  One of these three will be taking home the prize on Sunday evening.  The way the math works, if Merritt is able to birdie the hole during either of the next 2 rounds, he takes the prize.  If he can’t get the birdie and Fowler or Baddeley don’t eagle it during the next 2 days, there will be a 3-way playoff for $1 million after the tournament on Sunday.

I don’t know about you guys, but I think if you give a PGA Tour pro 2 chances at birdie for $1 million, I like the odds.  However, the 17th hole is considered one of the most difficult on the course, playing 485 yards with a tee shot over water, so we may in fact end up watching a 3-way playoff on Sunday evening.  Either way, it’s going to make for some very exciting golf this weekend.

What an ending! It seems like the Fall Series has had some of the most dramatic and entertaining finishes of the entire season. With an ace on the 204-yard 17th hole (the 4th hole of a 3-man playoff), Jonathan Byrd grabs his first win on tour and secures his tour card for the next 2 seasons.

Players on the move:

Obviously Jonathan Byrd tops this list. He had been sitting at 117 on the money list. Inside the top 125 but close enough to make him sweat it out these last few weeks. He now has an extra $775k in the bank and his tour card for the next 2 years. He’ll also get to play in the season opening event at Kapalua (which is about to have a title sponsor switch from SBS to Hyndai).

With a T8, Aaron Baddeley jumped 10 spots to safety at 110 on the money list.  Kevin Sutherland made a similar move from 121 to 115.  That should give him some breathing room for the season finale down in Orlando in a few weeks.  And Woody Austin moved up two spots to 123.

The other players moving up in the list were all outside the top 125.  Michael Connell moved from 137 to 129.  Richard S Johnson moved from 143 to 131.  And George McNiell moved from 141 to 133.  These guys are all capable of getting inside the top 125 with good play at the season finale so keep an eye on them.

Players falling behind:

Just about everybody else fell into this category this week.  A lot of guys near the 125 mark missed the cut or didn’t play this week causing them to slide a few spots.  Ben Curtis and Jeff Maggert both dropped 5 spots to 117 and 118 with missed cuts.  Joe Durant didn’t play and fell 6 spots to 120.  Troy Merritt made the cut but only cashed a $10k check and fell 3 spots to 121.

On the Bubble:

Briny Baird is now the man on the bubble after moving up a spot from 127 to 126.  He’s a hell of a ball striker and given the rash of eagles lately, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he had one or more at Orlando to get inside the top 125.  Aaron Price, last week’s man on the bubble missed the cut.  Luckily, he only dropped a spot to 127, so he’s still very much in the hunt.

We’re now down to the last event of the year.  Unfortunately we have to wait for it until Nov 11.  I can’t imagine that many of the guys fighting for their 2011 tour card are going to have a relaxing break.  But it should give them some time to practice and focus on the task at hand.  It should also make for some great golf as we close out the 2010 season.

I said a couple of weeks ago that the Fall Series was one of my favorite times of the year for golf viewing.  And this past weekend proved my point.  Rocco Mediate grabbed his 6th win on tour (has he really only won 6 times? Wow) in dramatic style.  He was sitting 182nd on the money list and had already sent in his application for Q-School.  I imagine that he’ll now spend December gearing up for the season opener at Kapalua in January.

It’s also awesome to see David Duval playing solid golf.  He’s sitting comfortably at 99th on the list, so he’ll definitely be out on Tour next year.  Shooting 4 rounds under par isn’t something that he’s done since his T2 at Pebble Beach in Feburary.  He’s shown flashes of brilliance over the past couple of years.  Could we be close to seeing the former world #1 snag his first victory since the 2001 British Open?

Guys on the move:

Rocco wasn’t the only player making a move last week.  Dean Wilson finished T13 with some solid, if unspectacular weekend play.  That bumped him from 122 to 111, likely ensuring that he’ll have his card for the 2011 season.

Troy Merritt’s 65 on Saturday helped him to a T18 finish.  That moved him from the dreaded 126 position to 118.  If he can make one more cut this season, he should probably be OK.

Aaron Baddley moved up a spot to 120.  He was in a position to do much better than that, but a Sunday 75 really hurt him.  However another T30 would lock it up for him.

Guys moving the wrong way:

There were also some guys moving the wrong way.  Woody Austin dropped a spot from 124 to 125.  That’s cutting it awful close, Woody.  My dad had a great pro-am experience with Woody a few years ago and I’d really like to see him keep his card and avoid Q-School.

Briny Baird’s missed cut could cost him dearly.  He dropped from 123 to 127.  He needs a couple of solid weeks to guarantee a spot on Tour next year.

On the Bubble:

Aaron Price is now the man on the bubble, moving from 125 to 126.  I don’t imagine he’s sleeping very well right now.

There are a couple of guys just outside the top 125 to keep an eye on as well.  Bob Estes missed cut dropped him from 127 to 128.  Billy Mayfair is sitting at 131.  He’s making cuts, but needs to put together a couple of solid weekend rounds if he wants to earn his card for next year.  Tom Pernice Jr move up from 138 to 133.

We’ve only got 2 weeks until the end of the 2010 season.  It’s the last chance for players to lock up their playing spot for 2011 and avoid the dreaded Q-School.  If the last few weeks are any indication, we have some great golf to look forward to.

Dean Wilson just shot a 64 to move into 2nd place at the Frys.com open behind Rocco Mediate.  Wilson is currently sitting #122 on the money list.  Assuming he doesn’t go 76-80 this weekend, his 64 today probably just locked up his spot on tour next year.

We’ll see if he’s able to hold onto that #2 spot as the later groups come in, but regardless, this (along with Troy Merritt last week) is a perfect example of what makes the fall series great.

Also, maybe if Dean cashes a big check this week, he’ll be able to get a new website.

Troy Merritt at the Viking Classic

The PGA tour typically struggles in the fall. They’re competing against the NFL and MLB Playoffs. Viewership falls off significantly. For many of the biggest names in golf, the FedEx Cup now marks the end of the season.

But the “Fall Series” as the tour calls it, is actually one of the most interesting times of the year in golf. Why? Because this is when players get 5 weeks to establish themselves on tour, retain their tour card or go back to Q-School in December. Players that sneak inside the top-125, get to set their schedule for 2011 and can enter any full-field event they choose.

Players that fall outside of that line (as Robert Garrigus did last year by a mere $5k), have a much rougher time.  They are forced to write letters asking for sponsors exemptions, drive in at the last minute when a spot in the field opens up, and generally struggle trying to get back into the magical top-125.

This season there are a number of players to watch.  The PGA Tour maintains a projected money list that can let you see where everybody stands throughout each tournament.  Robert Garrigus is sitting just inside the top 125.  Dean Wilson, Briny Baird, Billy Mayfair and Troy Merritt are all right in the mix.

On Saturday,  Merritt played his way into the final group at the McGladrey Classic with a strong 64.  Unfortunately he shot a final round 75 to finish T33.  But seeing somebody work hard to keep their card and put themselves in a position to win was great.  This was his first time in a final pairing and if he keeps playing solid golf, he’ll be there again with another opportunity to pull out a win.  This is exactly what the fall series is all about.

There are 3 events remaining in the 2010 PGA Tour season.  If you’re favorite NFL team is having a bye-week, try tuning in the PGA Tour fall series.  Even though you may not see Tiger and Phil battling it out, you may find that the struggle between players trying to cash a check and keep (or earn) their card is just as intense and interesting.

And if Mitsubishi will hurry up and get my TV fixed, I’ll be able to watch right along with you